Nashville vs. Lake Erie: A Pennant Race on the Edge

David Mitchell

Forty-two and twenty-seven, Michael. That- that is the record right now for the Nashville Rivermen, and it puts them alone at the top of the SML with a league-best plus-seventy-five run differential. But, uh, I have to go back to what you said last month. You called their rotation a, and I quote, ticking time bomb, especially with Bill Krupa looking like he was completely self-destructing with that ERA north of fifteen.

Michael Reynolds

Oh, I- I absolutely did, David. And look, Krupa has, uh, let's say stabilized, right? He is eight and five now, the ERA is down to four-point-eight-seven, which is still- it's still playing with fire, but it's not a house on fire anymore. But this- this lead? It is razor-thin. They are one single game ahead of Lake Erie, who is sitting right there at forty-six and thirty-seven. And we are heading straight into a four-game head-to-head series that is going to be absolute war.

David Mitchell

Well, and the only reason they are surviving that ticking time bomb is Craig Green. I mean, what he is doing is just- it is historic. A twelve-start unbeaten streak, nine and two overall, two-point-six-eight ERA. But- but look at the last three starts. Nineteen and two-thirds innings, eleven hits, one earned run. That is a zero-point-forty-six ERA, Michael. Zero-point-forty-six!

Michael Reynolds

It is insane, David. But as a coach, when you see a kid throwing like that, you are- you are thrilled, but you are also terrified because you know he is masking the rot. He is covering up a bullpen where you've got middle-relief guys walking out there with ERAs over five, over six. It puts this immense, constant pressure on Ramiro Martinez to be perfect. Martinez has nineteen saves, a two-point-eight-six ERA, but he is running out there in high-stress, high-leverage situations almost every single night because the bridge to get to him is made of wet cardboard.

David Mitchell

Right, but then you look at Lake Erie, and they have the exact opposite problem. Their offense has gone into a complete, uh, deep freeze. Over the last two weeks, David Zermeno is hitting point-zero-ninety-eight. Point-zero-ninety-eight! Daniel Franco is at point-one-two-eight, and Brian Ashe is hitting point-one-six-one. It is- it is a lineup of automatic outs right now, except for Ryan Krueger who is basically carrying the entire state on his back with twenty-two homers and fifty-nine RBIs.

Michael Reynolds

Yeah, but David, how are they still only one game back with those kind of ice-cold bats? It is the bullpen. That Erie pen is a cheat code. Sergio Orozco has a one-point-four-three ERA. Jerry Doiron is at one-point-zero-three. Matt Leach is at one-point-six-five. When their starter gets through five, the game is essentially over. Their team bullpen ERA is two-point-five-seven, the best in the league. It is a completely different philosophy than Nashville.

David Mitchell

It is. It is the classic unstoppable force versus the immovable object. But if you are looking at this upcoming four-game series, I- I honestly think Lake Erie's formula is more sustainable. If their starters can just give them five decent innings, they can hand it to that bullpen and completely shut Nashville's offense down. Nashville has scored four hundred and nineteen runs, yes, but Justin Amo's average has plummeted from point-three-point-nine down to point-two-forty-eight. That lineup is showing cracks.

Michael Reynolds

I- I hear you, but I disagree. Nashville's depth is what makes them deadly. Even with Amo struggling to find his hit tool lately, he still has twenty-seven stolen bases and fifty-five runs scored because he walks and he runs like the wind. And you still have Cervantes with sixteen homers, Barnes with thirteen. That offense is relentless. They- they don't just beat you; they wear you down. I think they crack that Erie bullpen by game three because those relievers are going to be exhausted.

Michael Reynolds

But let's talk about the bottom of the standings because, man, the news out of Anchorage is just- it's devastating. Twenty -nine and forty-two , fourteen games back, and now they lose Dan Baruch for four months with a torn meniscus. He was their entire engine, David. Hitting point-three-thirteen, sixteen home runs, fifty-six RBIs. As a coach, when you lose a guy like that, the air just completely sucks out of the clubhouse. You look around, and you know you're in trouble.

David Mitchell

Oh, the- the psychological blow is massive. And- and then you look at who they have to rely on now. Dustin Campbell has eighteen home runs, which looks great on a baseball card, but he is hitting point-one-eight-three, Michael. Point-one-eight-three! You cannot have a guy hitting under the interstate average trying to be your primary run producer. It- it forces everyone into roles they are just not built for.

Michael Reynolds

Exactly. You can't ask a three-true-outcome guy to suddenly become a high-average table-setter. It- it doesn't work. And look at Augusta, thirty-seven and forty-six, ten games out. They are completely wasting David Kiggins, who has nineteen homers and forty-five RBIs, and Jorge Rojas, who hit point-four-one-seven over the last two weeks! It is- it's a crime, David. They have the bats, but they can't stop anybody.

David Mitchell

Well, and that is a direct indictment of the Augusta front office. Last month, we talked about Steve Ellis having a seven-point-zero-one ERA. Today? It is seven-point-one-five. It got worse! Their team bullpen ERA is five-point-one-seven, dead last in the SML. Management has sat on their hands and done absolutely nothing to address the pitching, and now they are ten games out and completely irrelevant.

Michael Reynolds

So- so what do they do? We are staring at the trade deadline. If you are Augusta, or if you are Anchorage, do you- do you actually have the guts to pull the plug? Do you trade David Kiggins? Do you sell off your pieces and rebuild, or do you just, uh, stay pat and pray for a miracle?

David Mitchell

If they have any sense, they sell. Anchorage has to listen to offers on their veterans because with Baruch out, this season is dead in the water. Augusta needs to face the reality that one Scott Nugent on the mound isn't enough to save them. If they don't trade Kiggins now for some young pitching, they are just signing up for another three years of mediocrity.

Michael Reynolds

Yeah. Pride is a terrible thing in a front office, David. It makes you do stupid things. We'll see who has the guts to actually make the move. Alright, that's- that's all the time we have for this quick take. We'll see how this Nashville-Erie series shakes out.

David Mitchell

Talk soon, Michael.